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Winter is Coming: German Economy Doomed in Wake of Anti-Russian Sanctions, Scholars Say_我的网站
一 | While Germany's producer prices observe the biggest rise since records began in 1949, the index has also shown the biggest month-on-month increase, leaping 5.3% from June to July.,"The outlook for the further development [of the economy] is currently noticeably gloomy," and marked by "a high degree of uncertainty," Germany's Finance Ministry said in its August monthly report, quoted by Reuters.,"We have something like a tsunami coming," said Florian Josef Hoffmann, former president of the Chamber of Industry and Commerce East Thuringia and author of "Occupy Economics." "It’s calm water, everything goes slowly down. For example, furniture retail has completely stopped and other things are going down, too. Everything goes slower step by step. But the disaster comes, as I told you, in autumn. And that will be very bad. I can't imagine that this economy can easily survive this really critical situation.",Germans have been experiencing some pre-existing domestic problems as the government turned down nuclear and coal plants in order to switch over to gas and renewables, he noted. However, anti-Russian sanctions which included a sweeping energy embargo "create a real huge problem for the economy because it is based on the cheap Russian gas and now it's cut down by the own will of the government," according to Hoffmann.,"They cut down the gas import [from Russia]," he explained. "So the whole strategy of the past is ruined, and that's the problem. And that makes for great uncertainty because more or less the ship runs against the ice mountain. It's more than uncertainty; I see even the crash coming along for the German economy, not only because of these sanctions, but because of the consequences of the sanctions.",Energy Crisis in EuropeEU Will Not Replace Russian Gas in Full If Nord Stream 1 Remains Shut, Expert Says19 July, 18:20 GMT,The Russo-German chill started with Berlin suspending the Nord Stream 2 project on February 22, 2022. Moscow launched a special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine two days later, after the US, NATO and the EU defied Russia's draft security agreements envisaging ending the transatlantic military alliance's expansion and deployment in Ukraine.,In the aftermath of the operation, the US and its NATO allies have introduced several packages of sanctions. The EU pledged to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels before 2030, following in Washington and London's footsteps. In April, Brussels laid out targets to slash its demand for Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022.,Western sanctions also complicated Gazprom's maintenance of the existing Nord Stream 1 infrastructure. The Russian company was forced to reduce shipments via the network in mid-June over delays in the repair of a Siemens-built high-pressure gas pumping turbine in Canada. Ottawa deliberately delayed the return of the turbine, which had undergone maintenance work, back to Europe, citing anti-Russian sanctions. To make matters worse, the Canadian side did not provide proper documentation for the turbine which resulted in further delays. In late July, Gazprom said that it had to stop the operation of another Siemens gas turbine engine for maintenance, which prompted western press to groundlessly claim that Russia was deliberately cutting gas supplies to Europe.,Berlin's energy policy is dictated from Washington for the detriment of the people of Germany, according to Dr. Christian Blex, an AfD lawmaker from the state parliament of North Rhine-Westphalia.,"The sanctions that the hypermoral German government in particular is repeatedly demanding are therefore particularly bad for our country," he said. "Any responsible government would base its actions on the well-being of its own people rather than acting as a vassal of the US.",Energy Crisis in EuropeGermany Should Immediately Launch Nord Stream 2, Bundestag Vice Speaker Says08:42 GMT,Biggest Problems Coming in Autumn, Winter,As of yet, the negative impact of sanctions is not particularly felt by ordinary Germans, according to the observers.,"At the moment we don't feel anything. Big bills are only announced and haven't yet reached the consumers," said Hoffmann. "But the announcements are that the energy prices will go up three to five fold, for many people [this will be] simply unpayable. That’s what is going to come in autumn. Ordinary people prepare by buying canned food or wood or gas stoves. What I also know is, for instance, that not only the ordinary people, but also the cities are preparing. The city of Dusseldorf is cutting down the heating of all gangways in their administration facilities. They are cutting the temperature down from 21 degrees centigrade to 19 or even 17, closing saunas and heating outside swimming pools. They are cutting down lights on public buildings.",While the people are not yet in panic, the German authorities are, according to Hoffmann.,"The government is talking about reducing the turnover tax for gas from 19% to 7% and they are trying to reduce the tax load for pensioners and other instruments to calm down the people," he noted. "But it's ridiculous what they plan when you look at the task of breaking a huge breakdown of the economy. It's only peanuts.",Meanwhile, businesses are expecting climbing power prices, and they are already thinking about how to compensate for that, according to him.,"The German economy looks to the future with serious concerns," echoed Blex. "In contrast to many citizens, business knows exactly what the energy crisis will bring. In public, however, criticism is heard only hesitantly. Fear of green politics and the media is still very great. As the suffering increases, the criticism will become louder… The biggest problems are coming up for the ordinary people with the inflation of food prices and extremely with the power costs. It will hit the poor, the low income class, those who will have to pay not 40, 50 or 60 euros per month for their power, but 200, 400 or even 500. That will make them not only hungry but upset.",WorldGerman Craftsmen Urge Chancellor Scholz to Scrap Sanctions Against Russia13:40 GMT,The AfD lawmaker expects a worsening recession with industrial production falling noticeably in Germany. He forecasts that short-time work will be reintroduced, adding that retailers are already noticing that more and more Germans are making significant savings. After all, the German national debt will continue to rise rapidly, according to him.,For his part, Hoffmann does not rule out that the people will eventually take to the streets en masse, stressing that the German government has already been preparing for this scenario.,"Our Ministry of Defense is preparing a special task force of 1900 soldiers, which have to keep peace within the country," he said. "This is an incredible decision. Our Bundeswehr is an army solely for defense against attacks from the outside. This basic rule is now broken, which means we are now in a totalitarian regime which has no respect for laws and our Constitution. They simply do what they want including censorship. And as one can see, they are preparing for a revolution.",Hoffmann cites German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as saying that the country's forces won't shoot at the people. However, the author expresses skepticism about Scholz' pledge: "It is like 'nobody wants to build a wall' in 1961 and then it was built some weeks later. So, the situation is disastrous," he concluded.。 最近，“燃油车集体降价”的话题在各个平台都引发了热议。一边是新车价格节节走低，多个品牌出现明显价格下调；另一边是二手油车价格跟着回落，不少车主发现自己刚买不久的车，转手价值缩水了不少。这种价格变化，让观望准备买车的人看到了机会，也让不少新车主心里不是滋味。
二 | 价格波动本是市场常事，但落到具体消费者身上，就是实打实的用车成本。面对价格起伏，买车、卖车、用车时有哪些坑要留意？又该如何维护自己的权益？ 价格变动，车主可能遇到三类情况 一是新车刚买就遇降价，心里难免落差。这多是市场整体调整叠加促销，属于正常价格变动，但购车时不妨关注品牌是否提供价格保护或保价政策。二是二手车残值缩水，卖掉会亏，可转念一想，换个角度看也是入手二手车的低点，关键要会挑。三是个别4S店、经销商在销售环节设置捆绑、加价等门槛，这类就需要多留个心眼。 想在变动期少吃亏，买车前最好把功课做足：多对比几家报价，把裸车价、保险、上牌、税费问清楚；合同里的条款逐条看，尤其关注价保、退订这些约定；对车辆的新车指导价和近期成交价心中有数，别被“限时优惠”冲昏头。 除了看单款车的价格，政策因素同样值得留个心眼。目前新能源车在购置税环节仍有阶段性优惠，不少地方还配套了置换补贴，这些都直接影响实际购车成本。如果本就有购车计划，可以把税费和补贴一起算进总账里再作决定，既能省钱，也能减少因市场价格浮动带来的落差感。
三 | 遇到买车、售后问题，怎么维权？ 真遇到销售陷阱、质量问题或售后纠纷，处理路径是清晰的。先和4S店或经销商沟通协商，这是成本最低的一步；协商不成的，可以向12315投诉，涉及汽车质量、虚假宣传、合同纠纷都能反映；如果问题牵涉车辆缺陷，还可以向市场监管部门的缺陷产品相关机构提交线索，推动企业重视。
四 | 除了官方渠道，互联网投诉平台 【下载黑猫投诉客户端】也能提供帮助。以黑猫投诉为例，消费者可通过网站、APP、微信小程序上传购车合同、发票、维修记录、检测报告等证据，平台转达给相关车企或经销商协调处理，进展实时可见。黑猫投诉平台还是全国汽车产品缺陷线索监测协作网的成员单位，会向有关部门汇总上报产品质量缺陷相关线索，这些数据也有助于推动行业关注产品质量问题。
五 | 链接：https：//tousu.sina.com.cn/。 买卖二手油车，把握几个关键点 价格走低，对计划买二手油车的朋友反而是窗口。但一定要注意几点：查清车辆的维修、保养及出险记录，判断是否事故车、泡水车；尽量选择车况透明、信誉良好的渠道；实地验车或找第三方检测，别被低价冲昏了头。同样，卖车时多找几家中介比价，了解行情再出手，避免被压价。 说到底，无论是等着入手降价的新车，还是想淘一辆优惠的二手油车，核心都是先想清楚自己的需求：更看重驾驶品质、用车成本，还是补能是否方便。把账算明白再出手，才不容易受一时热闹的行情影响，也少留后悔的余地。 价格有涨有落是市场常态，掌握信息、理性决策才是关键。无论买车还是用车，多花点心思做功课、把维权渠道了解清楚，才能在大幅波动的市场里占据主动，让每一分钱都花得明白。责任编辑：孙晓明。
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